For three decades, several opposition parties have tried to unseat Museveni and failed. This time around, it looks like the President is at the edge of getting defeated in the 2021 elections.
Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni, who has been at the helm of power since 1986, is turning into what many would say an autocratic leader.
He is bent on silencing the opposition and suppressing the media in order to maintain his grip on power.
With the upcoming elections in 2021, the 75-year-old President is now facing an uphill task.
Here are the six reasons why Mr Museveni will fall short of the 50 per cent electoral mark to extend his rule into 2026.
The Rising People Power
Robert Kyagulanyi alias Bobi Wine has won the hearts of oppressed Ugandans and continues to draw excitement; especially among urban voters.
He is a fresh breath in the Uganda political arena. Through his People Power pressure group, he continues to capture the imagination of many Ugandans that are calling for Museveni's retirement.
Bobi Wine showed off his muscle when he successfully backed a few MPs to win their by-elections.
In the West Nile Ugandan town of Arua, the musician now turned politician amassed the support of thousands of sympathizers.
Uganda security personnel catalyzed his symphathy when they shot dead his driver, Yasin Kawooya that same evening.
People Power's prominence has also been felt in guild elections in universities countrywide. Bobi Wine's magical trait to rally thousands is seen as a key element to oust Museveni come 2021.
Rampant Corruption
Uncertainty looms with regard to where the country is headed, the rampant corruption in all government institutions continues to turn voters away from the ruling NRM.
The judiciary has lost its sanctity, as Museveni's allies are let off the hook even after found guilty of embezzling billions in public funds.
Poor Service Delivery
Ugandans are grappling with poor services in education and healthcare. In rural areas, children attend classes under tree shades with insufficient scholastic materials.
Meanwhile, public hospitals lack staff, medicine and the right medical apparatus. Museveni's government is wasting billions on teargas stocks and purchasing top of the range standard utility vehicles for government officials.
These inconsiderate plans have angered a majority of Ugandan voters. They are witness to children's poor education, patients crowding hospital corridors and expectant mothers dying in labour wards.
Youth Unemployment
President Museveni's policies have stifled prospects for a better future for the youth of Uganda. Youth unemployment, shamefully, is at a staggering 83%.
The President is focussed on hatching new schemes to extend his rule rather than creating jobs.
There are 7,310,386 frustrated youths from the ages of 15–24 years living in Uganda, the majority unemployed.
University and college graduates lack the necessary skills needed to gain employment.
During a focus group discussions in Owino Market last year, young people spoke about lack of access to formal jobs.
“We looked for jobs until we gave up,” one young woman said. Youth unemployment poses a serious political risk for Museveni's re-election in 2021.
The Unending Lockdown
LDUs
Despite staying in power for decades, Museveni's rule has been characterised by his naked brutal militarism.
During the COVID-19 lockdown, the President deployed Local Defence Units (LDU's) who brutally beat them people as a way of enforcing Coronavirus guidelines.
LDUs shot and killed several people during the lockdown an act that has stained the good efforts of the NRM government in fighting coronavirus.
Teachers
Teachers have been badly affected by the lockdown after the government closed down all schools in March this year over the #Coronavirus pandemic.
The negative effects of the lockdown on the finances of teachers forced some to divert into pottery, bricklaying and other meagre jobs.
The continuous lockdown and hardening financial situation of the teachers is bad enough to make them switch to the opposition.
Religious Groups
As other countries are uplifting the restrictions concerning the closure of places of worship, Uganda continues to suspend religious gatherings to prevent the spread of COVID-19.
Majority of Pentecostal church leaders and other religious groups have vowed to pull out their support for president Museveni if their places of worship are not opened.
Polarized Buganda and Kasese
The opinion poll released yesterday by the Research World International shows that Museveni will score about 41 per cent.
Buganda, Sebei, Busoga and Bugisu which have always supported President Museveni, are now gravitating towards the Opposition.
These regions, however, remain highly contested in the polls between the NRM and Bobi Wine's People Power.
In Buganda, Mr Museveni scored 27 per cent against Bobi Wine’s 37 per cent, Dr Kizza Besigye’s 22 and Maj Gen Mugisha Muntu with 2 per cent.
The poll urges that if the Opposition fronted one candidate and presumably manage to convince all its supporters to rally behind a joint candidate, Buganda, Busoga, Sebei and Bugisu sub-region could be taken by the Opposition.
In the 2016 polls, Opposition swept Kasese District. This could repeat itself in the 2021 contest due to the horrific massacre of Rwenzururu Kingdom guards.
King Charles Wesley Mumbere was incarcerated by the ruling government since then.
The king has not stepped foot in any part of his kingdom since November 2016. The bitterness in Kasese is rife and may not translate into Museveni's support come 2021.
Museveni seized power as the head of a rebel army in 1986 after taking part in rebellions to end the brutal rule of Idi Amin and Milton Obote.
As a young radical in the 1980s, he publicly scorned African rulers who clung to power. After 30 years in office, he has clearly gripped pretty hard onto power.
But like most revolutionaries, many believe, Museveni is losing focus. We are yet to witness what the electorate has to say in the 2021 presidential elections.
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