At least 300,000 Africans expected to die in pandemic - U.N. agency

Football enthusiasts pack Mkapa Stadium in Tanzania during a match between soccer clubs Simba and Vitalo

The COVID-19 pandemic will likely kill at least 300,000 Africans and risks pushing 29 million into extreme poverty, the U.N. Economic Commission for Africa (UNECA) projected in mid-April 2020.

By then, Africa’s 54 countries had reported fewer than 20,000 confirmed cases of the disease, just a fraction of the more than two million cases that were reported globally.

The World Health Organization warned that Africa could see as many as 10 million cases in six months.

Ugandans jog on a highway during the coronavirus outbreak, outdoor exercises in groups were later banned by the government.

“To protect and build towards our shared prosperity at least $100 billion is needed to immediately resource a health and social safety net response,” the UNECA report stated.

UNECA was backing a call by African finance ministers for an additional $100 billion in stimulus, which would include a halt to all external debt service.

The agency modelled four scenarios based on the level of preventive measures introduced by African governments.

In the total absence of such interventions, the study calculated over 1.2 billion Africans would be infected and 3.3 million would die this year. Africa has a total population of around 1.3 billion.

Most of Africa, however, mandated social distancing measures, ranging from curfews and travel guidelines. In some countries, full lockdowns were effected.

Yet even in the best-case scenario, where governments introduced intense social distancing guidelines. Once a threshold of 0.2 deaths per 100,000 people per week is reached, Africa would see 122.8 million infections, 2.3 million hospitalisations and 300,000 deaths.

There are uncofirmed reports of COVID-19 victims buried at night as Tanzania continues to curtail media outlets

Combating the disease will be complicated by the fact that a majority of Africans are flouting social distancing guidelines and have no access to household washing facilities.

The study shows that the continent counts just 1.8 hospital beds per 1,000 people. France, in comparison, has 5.98 beds per 1,000 people.

Africa’s young demographic – nearly 60% of the population is below the age of 25 – should help stave off the disease.

On the other hand, 56 per cent of the urban population is concentrated in overcrowded slums and many people are also vulnerable due to HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis and malnutrition.

Africa imports 94% of its pharmaceuticals, the report said, noting that at least 71 countries have banned or limited exports of certain supplies deemed essential to fight the disease.

“In a best-case scenario … $44 billion would be required for testing, personal protective equipment, and to treat all those requiring hospitalisations,” it stated.

But that is money Africa does not have as the crisis could also shrink the continent’s economy by up to 2.6%.

An estimated that 5 million and 29 million people will be pushed into abject poverty owing to the impact of COVID-19 the report detailed.

Nigeria alone will lose between $14 billion and $19.2 billion in revenues from oil exports this year. And the prices of other African commodities exports will plummet as well.

Lockdowns in Europe and the United States also affect Africa’s $15 billion in annual textile and apparel exports as well as tourism, which accounts for 8.5% of Africa’s GDP.